Summary of the Mercurio and Associates Enrollment Study

At the March 4, 2025 Master Facilities Committee meeting, John Mercurio from John W. Mercurio and Associates presented his findings from an independent enrollment study conducted for the District. Chief Operating Officer Chris Passarge commissioned Mercurio for this project to provide the committee a second enrollment study to compare against the one conducted by the Ohio Facilities Construction Commission (OFCC) last fall.

Mercurio explained the difference between an enrollment project versus an enrollment forecast. A projection considers historical data for estimating while a forecast is focused on future events and factors to calculate estimates. “The most accurate enrollment studies are a hybrid of both,” he said. 

Historically, predicting Lakota’s enrollment has been challenging with data showing between 6.4 percent and 14.7 percent inaccuracies when over relying on census data. “Census data can be helpful if it’s verified with local sources as well,” Mercurio told the committee. Mercurio explained to the Board of Education members and committee members that while the OFCC relies on United States Census data, he utilizes multiple sources to assist with accuracy in his predictions. These include:

• The American Community Survey;
• The United States Census;
• Fertility rate based from the census and data from the Ohio Department of Health;
• Economic data such as income and the workforce;
• Housing data such as vacant homes, renter versus owner and occupancy rate; and
• Student yield data to determine how many students have been coming to Lakota.

To calculate future enrollment, Mercurio reviews kindergarten enrollment, the migration of students (those coming and leaving the District) and the graduating class. Mercurio explained that “the most influential factors driving the Lakota enrollment over this forecast period are the generational cycle and the economic, or real estate, cycle.”

Generation Cycles

The trend data for Lakota shows a growth in grades kindergarten through sixth, grades seven-eight remain steady and a decline in grades nine-12. Mercurio shared that early elementary enrollment is tied to housing, with families who have younger children buying homes. He predicts that enrollment will have a slight increase over the next two-three years and then it will begin to drop before increasing again. This pattern is due to generational cycles, which are patterns in the number of people born in different time periods. 

Real Estate Cycles

Mercurio explained that the housing market goes through cycles of approximately 18-20 years. The current cycle, which started after 2008, is expected to end soon. When this happens, fewer families might move into the District, resulting in fewer new students.

Conclusion

Mercurio strongly encouraged the Board and facilities committee to look at an enrollment study as a living document. He recommends updating the study annually, “to maximize the student experience through efficient planning and operation.”

While the OFCC predicts Lakota’s enrollment will reach approximately 19,000 students in 2033, Mercurio believes enrollment will decline to 16,000 before rebounding and increasing again. This is because he predicts that 2029 will be the low point for the housing market cycle. 

The OFCC will utilize the Future Think study when reviewing the District's master plan for its co-funding program, the Expedited Local Partnership Program (ELPP). To ensure that Lakota's plan meets the OFCC's expectations, the District will also utilize the Future Think study in its planning process.